Fantasy
Draft consensus set against what each player actually earned, how steady he was week to week, and which defences he opens and finishes against. Nothing here predicts the season; it is what already happened, put next to what the market thinks.
Value and quality starts are measured against the last startable player at each position, assuming 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE. Every figure describes 2025.
- WR tier 113 players
- RB tier 111 players
- TE tier 13 players
Where the board and the numbers disagree
Consensus rank against what his opportunities were worth per game.
His numbers rate him higher
- Troy FranklinWR DEN+29
- Keon ColemanWR BUF+26
- Wan'Dale RobinsonWR TEN+20
- Elic AyomanorWR TEN+20
- Davante AdamsWR LAR+19
- Michael WilsonWR ARI+19
- Jakobi MeyersWR JAC+19
- Zach CharbonnetRB SEA+19
The board rates him higher
- Luther Burden IIIWR CHI-49
- Jaylin NoelWR HOU-49
- Tre' HarrisWR LAC-45
- Jack BechWR LVR-43
- Matthew GoldenWR GBP-37
- Isaac TeSlaaWR DET-36
- Bhayshul TutenRB JAC-34
- Isaiah LikelyTE NYG-31
Two figures per player: what he scored per game, then what his opportunities were worth. When the second is higher he was unlucky rather than bad. Neither predicts 2026; both describe what already happened.
Mock draft
Snake order. The other teams take the best available with a little reach.
Pick a draft slot and press Start. The teams ahead of you go first.
Your roster
Nothing drafted yet.
Bye weeks that collide
Which weeks take the most draftable players off the board at once.
- 3Puka NacuaLARWR
- 3Bijan RobinsonATLRB
- 5Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWR
- 13Drake LondonATLWR
- 15A.J. BrownNEPWR
- 38Drake MayeNEPQB
- 24DeVonta SmithPHIWR
- 25Saquon BarkleyPHIRB
- 37Colston LovelandCHITE
- 37Jaylen WaddleDENWR
- 38Emeka EgbukaTBBWR
- 45Luther Burden IIICHIWR
- 19James Cook IIIBUFRB
- 25Omarion HamptonLACRB
- 26Josh AllenBUFQB
- 36Ladd McConkeyLACWR
- 44Terry McLaurinWASWR
- 51Jayden DanielsWASQB
- 9Christian McCaffreySFORB
- 17Nico CollinsHOUWR
- 22Chris OlaveNOSWR
- 33Malik NabersNYGWR
- 50Travis Etienne Jr.NOSRB
- 52Mike EvansSFOWR
- 12Jonathan TaylorINDRB
- 17Ashton JeantyLVRRB
- 20Brock BowersLVRTE
- 30Zay FlowersBALWR
- 31Garrett WilsonNYJWR
- 32Lamar JacksonBALQB
- 2Ja'Marr ChaseCINWR
- 3Jahmyr GibbsDETRB
- 6Amon-Ra St. BrownDETWR
- 9Justin JeffersonMINWR
- 19Chase BrownCINRB
- 21De'Von AchaneMIARB
- 9CeeDee LambDALWR
- 19Trey McBrideARITE
- 19George PickensDALWR
- 38Jeremiyah LoveARIRB
- 46Javonte WilliamsDALRB
- 70Marvin Harrison Jr.ARIWR
- 67Carnell TateTENWR
- 75Jaylen WarrenPITRB
- 78DK MetcalfPITWR
- 83Michael Pittman Jr.PITWR
- 84Tony PollardTENRB
- 87Wan'Dale RobinsonTENWR
- 20Rashee RiceKCCWR
- 30Kenneth Walker IIIKCCRB
- 33Tetairoa McMillanCARWR
- 86Chuba HubbardCARRB
- 98Travis KelceKCCTE
Due to cool off
- Puka NacuaWR · LA375 vs 305actual / expected+70
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA360 vs 297actual / expected+63
- Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET367 vs 305actual / expected+61
- Jonathan TaylorRB · IND362 vs 306actual / expected+56
- De'Von AchaneRB · MIA323 vs 266actual / expected+56
- James CookRB · BUF302 vs 250actual / expected+52
Scored well above what their opportunities were worth. Not a criticism — touchdowns are the least repeatable part of the game.
Due to improve
- Justin JeffersonWR · MIN202 vs 249actual / expected-48
- Darnell MooneyWR · ATL82 vs 126actual / expected-44
- Emeka EgbukaWR · TB196 vs 237actual / expected-42
- Dak PrescottQB · DAL314 vs 355actual / expected-41
- Jerry JeudyWR · CLE121 vs 158actual / expected-37
- Davante AdamsWR · LA223 vs 257actual / expected-34
The volume has been there and the points haven't. These are the buy-low names.
What has left each roster
2025 production belonging to players who have moved on
Miami Dolphins- Jaylen Waddleto DEN194
- Tua Tagovailoato ATL161
- Julian Hillto NE31
Green Bay Packers- Romeo Doubsto NE165
- Emanuel Wilsonto SEA95
- Dontayvion Wicksto PHI76
Atlanta Falcons- Tyler Allgeierto ARI123
- Kirk Cousinsto LV104
- Darnell Mooneyto NYG82
Pittsburgh Steelers- Kenny Gainwellto TB221
- Calvin Austin IIIto NYG86
- Marquez Valdes-Scantlingto DAL32
Jacksonville Jaguars- Travis Etienneto NO254
- Tim Patrickto NYJ52
- Dyami Brownto WAS50
Washington Commanders- Deebo Samuel Sr.to SF188
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.to JAX92
- Chris Mooreto BAL39
Production from 2025 belonging to players who are no longer on that roster, worked out by comparing the club they played for against the club they are on now. It says what is available, not who gets it: a player still on the roster whose role changes anyway, an incoming free agent or a drafted rookie are all invisible here. Read it alongside the regression lists, where a player whose team-mate has left is a different proposition from one whose has not.
Whose job changed
Snap share, last 3 games of 2025 against the rest- 74% → 38% snaps19.6 → 14.0 a gameto Malik Davis
- 10% → 46% snaps2.3 → 13.7 a gameat the expense of Javonte Williams
- 35% → 62% snaps5.4 → 15.0 a gameat the expense of Alvin Kamara
- 62% → 37% snaps22.2 → 14.7 a gameto Ray Davis
- 71% → 45% snaps16.4 → 13.0 a gameto Devin Neal
- 82% → 26% snaps6.2 → 4.0 a gameto Chimere Dike
- 4% → 53% snaps0.2 → 3.3 a game
- 56% → 16% snaps5.1 → 1.0 a gameto Parker Washington
- 50% → 12% snaps2.3 → 0.3 a gameto Xavier Smith
- 56% → 18% snaps3.8 → 1.7 a gameto Mike Evans
- 23% → 56% snaps0.6 → 1.0 a gameat the expense of David Njoku
- 35% → 68% snaps2.1 → 3.3 a gameat the expense of Tyler Higbee
- 74% → 42% snaps5.4 → 1.7 a gameto Blake Whiteheart
- 32% → 62% snaps0.8 → 2.7 a game
- 45% → 72% snaps1.7 → 3.0 a game
- 100% → 7% snaps39.3 → 2.7 a game
- 98% → 9% snaps42.6 → 3.7 a gameto Joe Burrow
- 73% → 18% snaps26.6 → 4.3 a gameto Shedeur Sanders
- 98% → 49% snaps38.5 → 19.7 a gameto Tyler Shough
- 100% → 70% snaps35.5 → 26.3 a game
Share of his team's offensive snaps across the last three games of 2025 against every game before them, for players who held a real role on one side of the change, and ranked within his own position because a quarterback losing his job dwarfs everything else. Where a team-mate at the same position moved the other way he is named — that is an association, not a cause. A share can move because of an injury, a benching, a change of scheme or nothing that repeats, and this cannot tell them apart. What it does say is that the player who finished the season was not doing the same job as the one who started it, which is the part a points list leaves out.
Form
Runs still alive at the end of 2025Breaking out — furthest above their own level
- Emeka EgbukaWR TBB5 straight startable games+9.0
- Lamar JacksonQB BAL3 straight startable games+11.0
- Jonathan TaylorRB IND8 straight startable games+5.8
- Rome OdunzeWR CHI4 straight startable games+7.7
- Keenan AllenWR LAC3 straight startable games+8.1
- Quentin JohnstonWR LAC4 straight startable games+6.7
- Jordan AddisonWR MIN4 straight startable games+6.3
- Javonte WilliamsRB DAL5 straight startable games+5.5
Reliable — longest run of startable games
- De'Von AchaneRB MIA16 straight startable games16
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA11 straight startable games11
- CeeDee LambWR DAL10 straight startable games10
- Josh JacobsRB GBP9 straight startable games9
- Jonathan TaylorRB IND8 straight startable games8
- Christian McCaffreyRB SFO7 straight startable games7
- Bucky IrvingRB TBB6 straight startable games6
- Bijan RobinsonRB ATL6 straight startable games6
Startable means clearing the last starting spot at his position, the same bar the draft board measures value against. Breaking out is ranked on how far above his own 2025 average the run sits, so a star doing what a star does will not appear there. Runs are anchored to his most recent game.
Opening 5 fixtures
How generous each team's first 5 opponents were to each position in 2025QB
league average 16.3 pts a game allowed
HOU
BAL
CHI
RB
league average 22.2 pts a game allowed
WR
league average 30.7 pts a game allowed
Shown as the difference from the league average, so positive means his opponents gave up more than most and negative means less. Rated on 2025 defences, because a season needs four weeks in it before its own numbers mean anything: a defence that has changed personnel will not behave the same way.