Fantasy
Draft consensus set against what each player actually earned, how steady he was week to week, and which defences he opens and finishes against. Nothing here predicts the season; it is what already happened, put next to what the market thinks.
Value and quality starts are measured against the last startable player at each position, assuming 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE. Every figure describes 2025.
- WR tier 116 players
- RB tier 111 players
- TE tier 13 players
Where the board and the numbers disagree
Consensus rank against what his opportunities were worth per game.
His numbers rate him higher
- Troy FranklinWR DEN+30
- Keon ColemanWR BUF+26
- Wan'Dale RobinsonWR TEN+20
- Davante AdamsWR LAR+19
- Jakobi MeyersWR JAC+19
- Elic AyomanorWR TEN+19
- Michael WilsonWR ARI+18
- Zach CharbonnetRB SEA+18
The board rates him higher
- Luther Burden IIIWR CHI-49
- Jaylin NoelWR HOU-49
- Tre' HarrisWR LAC-48
- Jack BechWR LVR-46
- Matthew GoldenWR GBP-38
- Isaac TeSlaaWR DET-36
- Bhayshul TutenRB JAC-34
- Isaiah LikelyTE NYG-32
Two figures per player: what he scored per game, then what his opportunities were worth. When the second is higher he was unlucky rather than bad. Neither predicts 2026; both describe what already happened.
Mock draft
Snake order. The other teams take the best available with a little reach.
Pick a draft slot and press Start. The teams ahead of you go first.
Your roster
Nothing drafted yet.
Bye weeks that collide
Which weeks take the most draftable players off the board at once.
- 3Puka NacuaLARWR
- 4Bijan RobinsonATLRB
- 5Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWR
- 12Drake LondonATLWR
- 15A.J. BrownNEPWR
- 39Drake MayeNEPQB
- 24DeVonta SmithPHIWR
- 26Saquon BarkleyPHIRB
- 38Emeka EgbukaTBBWR
- 38Colston LovelandCHITE
- 38Jaylen WaddleDENWR
- 46Luther Burden IIICHIWR
- 18James Cook IIIBUFRB
- 26Omarion HamptonLACRB
- 26Josh AllenBUFQB
- 36Ladd McConkeyLACWR
- 45Terry McLaurinWASWR
- 50Jayden DanielsWASQB
- 9Christian McCaffreySFORB
- 16Nico CollinsHOUWR
- 21Chris OlaveNOSWR
- 29Malik NabersNYGWR
- 51Travis Etienne Jr.NOSRB
- 54Mike EvansSFOWR
- 12Jonathan TaylorINDRB
- 17Ashton JeantyLVRRB
- 20Brock BowersLVRTE
- 29Zay FlowersBALWR
- 30Garrett WilsonNYJWR
- 32Lamar JacksonBALQB
- 2Ja'Marr ChaseCINWR
- 3Jahmyr GibbsDETRB
- 6Amon-Ra St. BrownDETWR
- 10Justin JeffersonMINWR
- 18Chase BrownCINRB
- 21De'Von AchaneMIARB
- 9CeeDee LambDALWR
- 19Trey McBrideARITE
- 20George PickensDALWR
- 38Jeremiyah LoveARIRB
- 46Javonte WilliamsDALRB
- 70Marvin Harrison Jr.ARIWR
- 65Carnell TateTENWR
- 76Jaylen WarrenPITRB
- 78DK MetcalfPITWR
- 82Tony PollardTENRB
- 83Michael Pittman Jr.PITWR
- 88Wan'Dale RobinsonTENWR
- 22Rashee RiceKCCWR
- 29Kenneth Walker IIIKCCRB
- 34Tetairoa McMillanCARWR
- 87Chuba HubbardCARRB
- 99Travis KelceKCCTE
Snake draft — odd rounds run 1 to 12, even rounds run back. From seat 1 of 12 you pick at 1, 24, 25, 48… — 23 picks between your first two, where seat 1 waits 23 and seat 12 waits 1. Percentages are the chance a player is still on the board at that pick, worked out from his average draft position and how much it varies between rooms. They are not a promise.
- Round 1pick 1PosPlayerADP (range)There
- WRJa'Marr Chase3.9(1–8)100%
- RBJahmyr Gibbs1.8(1–4)100%
- WRPuka Nacua3.0(1–5)100%
- RBBijan Robinson1.7(1–4)100%
- WRJaxon Smith-Njigba5.5(2–9)100%
QB 1RB 12WR 11TE 5 - Round 2pick 24PosPlayerADP (range)There
- WRNico Collins23.3(15–33)47%
- WRDeVonta Smith29.0(19–40)94%
- QBJosh Allen28.2(9–46)74%
- WRMalik Nabers30.2(19–45)94%
- RBKenneth Walker III25.6(15–39)71%
QB 2RB 13WR 12TE 5 - Round 3pick 25PosPlayerADP (range)There
- TETrey McBride34.0(17–50)93%
- WRDeVonta Smith29.0(19–40)90%
- QBJosh Allen28.2(9–46)69%
- WRMalik Nabers30.2(19–45)91%
- RBKenneth Walker III25.6(15–39)61%
QB 2RB 14WR 12TE 6 - Round 4pick 48PosPlayerADP (range)There
- QBLamar Jackson53.6(33–70)79%
- WRJaylen Waddle47.3(31–69)49%
- QBDrake Maye49.9(33–67)65%
- QBJoe Burrow56.5(35–77)87%
- WRLuther Burden III55.7(36–83)86%
QB 4RB 10WR 12TE 5 - Round 5pick 49PosPlayerADP (range)There
- QBLamar Jackson53.6(33–70)75%
- WRJaylen Waddle47.3(31–69)42%
- QBDrake Maye49.9(33–67)59%
- QBJoe Burrow56.5(35–77)84%
- WRLuther Burden III55.7(36–83)83%
QB 4RB 11WR 13TE 5 - Round 6pick 72PosPlayerADP (range)There
- QBJayden Daniels68.6(40–106)39%
- WRChristian Watson68.6(43–94)38%
- QBJalen Hurts75.7(51–107)67%
- WRCarnell Tate76.2(55–100)72%
- WRParker Washington69.7(48–96)41%
QB 4RB 12WR 14TE 6 - Round 7pick 73PosPlayerADP (range)There
- QBJayden Daniels68.6(40–106)36%
- QBJalen Hurts75.7(51–107)63%
- WRCarnell Tate76.2(55–100)68%
- WRParker Washington69.7(48–96)37%
- RBJadarian Price72.0(33–117)49%
QB 4RB 11WR 13TE 7 - Round 8pick 96PosPlayerADP (range)There
- QBCaleb Williams103.1(61–138)68%
- QBJustin Herbert104.0(69–138)74%
- QBJaxson Dart102.6(65–134)69%
- QBPatrick Mahomes II98.7(66–125)60%
- RBJ.K. Dobbins94.4(64–140)46%
QB 5RB 11WR 13TE 5 - Round 9pick 97PosPlayerADP (range)There
- QBCaleb Williams103.1(61–138)66%
- QBJustin Herbert104.0(69–138)71%
- TETucker Kraft105.4(54–152)67%
- QBJaxson Dart102.6(65–134)67%
- QBPatrick Mahomes II98.7(66–125)57%
QB 5RB 12WR 12TE 6 - Round 10pick 120PosPlayerADP (range)There
- QBBo Nix120.4(89–143)53%
- RBBlake Corum122.6(81–162)58%
- QBBaker Mayfield129.0(103–150)83%
- RBJordan Mason123.1(85–151)60%
- WRJalen Coker125.3(98–148)72%
QB 3RB 10WR 10TE 5
Gold names are the ones worth planning around: genuinely uncertain, so they may slide to you or may not. Players whose average draft position is more than three quarters of a round later than your pick are left out of that pick entirely — taking them there spends more than they cost. Every pick is assessed independently, so a player can appear at several of your turns; this does not model who your opponents take.
Outscored their opportunities
- Puka NacuaWR · LA375 vs 305actual / expected+70375 vs 305 actual / expected74% of snaps (+7)Adams −34
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA360 vs 297actual / expected+63360 vs 297 actual / expected89% of snaps (+9)Shaheed −20
- Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET367 vs 305actual / expected+61367 vs 305 actual / expected71% of snaps (+3)Montgomery +3 more gone · 166 carries free
- Jonathan TaylorRB · IND362 vs 306actual / expected+56362 vs 306 actual / expected88% of snaps (+2)
- De'Von AchaneRB · MIA323 vs 266actual / expected+56323 vs 266 actual / expected75% of snaps (−2)Wright +18
- James CookRB · BUF302 vs 250actual / expected+52302 vs 250 actual / expected51% of snaps (−12)Davis +7
What they scored, against what their carries, targets and field position were statistically worth. Touchdowns are the least repeatable part of the game, so a gap this size rarely repeats either — but the expectation assumes the role repeats too, and under each name is what is known to have changed.
Fell short of their opportunities
- Justin JeffersonWR · MIN202 vs 249actual / expected−48202 vs 249 actual / expected95% of snaps (−4)Felton +13Nailor +2 more gone · 63 targets free
- Darnell MooneyWR · ATL82 vs 126actual / expected−4482 vs 126 actual / expected70% of snaps (−20)now at NYGRobinson and Bellinger +1 more gone · 181 targets free
- Emeka EgbukaWR · TB196 vs 237actual / expected−42196 vs 237 actual / expected58% of snaps (−30)Evans and White +1 more gone · 111 targets free
- Dak PrescottQB · DAL314 vs 355actual / expected−41314 vs 355 actual / expected91% of snaps (−9)
- Jerry JeudyWR · CLE121 vs 158actual / expected−37121 vs 158 actual / expected88% of snaps (+2)Larvadain −19Njoku and Ford gone · 80 targets free
- Davante AdamsWR · LA223 vs 257actual / expected−34223 vs 257 actual / expected46% of snaps (−34)Smith +21
The volume was there and the points weren't. The same measurement in the other direction, and it carries the same warning: a gap describes the season behind it. Whether the work is still coming is the part underneath each name.
What has left, and joined, each roster
2025 production, set against where those players are now
Miami Dolphins-314- Jaylen Waddleto DEN · 194
- Tua Tagovailoato ATL · 161
- Julian Hillto NE · 31
- +6 more
- Malik Willisfrom GB · 51
- Jalen Tolbertfrom DAL · 46
- Tutu Atwellfrom LA · 31
- +1 more
- Romeo Doubsto NE · 165
- Emanuel Wilsonto SEA · 95
- Dontayvion Wicksto PHI · 76
- +3 more
- Tyrod Taylorfrom NYJ · 59
- Skyy Moorefrom SF · 15
- Tyler Allgeierto ARI · 123
- Kirk Cousinsto LV · 104
- Darnell Mooneyto NYG · 82
- +6 more
- Tua Tagovailoafrom MIA · 161
- Olamide Zaccheausfrom CHI · 85
- Brian Robinsonfrom SF · 63
- +6 more
- Kenny Gainwellto TB · 221
- Calvin Austin IIIto NYG · 86
- Marquez Valdes-Scantlingto DAL · 32
- +3 more
- Rico Dowdlefrom CAR · 216
- Michael Pittmanfrom IND · 202
- Jakobie Keeney-Jamesfrom GB · 4
- +2 more
- Travis Etienneto NO · 254
- Tim Patrickto NYJ · 52
- Dyami Brownto WAS · 50
- +1 more
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.from WAS · 92
- Ameer Abdullahfrom IND · 38
- Deebo Samuel Sr.to SF · 188
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.to JAX · 92
- Chris Mooreto BAL · 39
- +2 more
- Stefon Diggsfrom NE · 210
- Rachaad Whitefrom TB · 143
- Chig Okonkwofrom TEN · 124
- +3 more
- Jauan Jenningsto MIN · 173
- Kendrick Bourneto ARI · 92
- Brian Robinsonto ATL · 63
- +1 more
- Deebo Samuel Sr.from WAS · 188
- Mike Evansfrom TB · 85
- Christian Kirkfrom HOU · 58
- +5 more
New York Jets-109- Justin Fieldsto KC · 143
- John Metchie IIIto CAR · 72
- Tyrod Taylorto GB · 59
- +4 more
- Geno Smithfrom LV · 174
- Tim Patrickfrom JAX · 52
- Michael Carterto TEN · 99
- Kyler Murrayto MIN · 78
- Greg Dortchto DET · 75
- +4 more
- Tyler Allgeierfrom ATL · 123
- Kendrick Bournefrom SF · 92
- Evan Hullfrom NO · 6
- +3 more
- Marquise Brownto PHI · 138
- Isiah Pachecoto DET · 87
- JuJu Smith-Schusterto NYG · 74
- +5 more
- Kenneth Walker IIIfrom SEA · 192
- Justin Fieldsfrom NYJ · 143
- Emari Demercadofrom ARI · 58
- A.J. Brownto NE · 220
- Jahan Dotsonto ATL · 50
- Kylen Gransonto TEN · 11
- +2 more
- Marquise Brownfrom KC · 138
- Dontayvion Wicksfrom GB · 76
- Elijah Moorefrom BUF · 29
- +5 more
- Wan'Dale Robinsonto TEN · 218
- Daniel Bellingerto TEN · 60
- Ray-Ray McCloudto CHI · 14
- Calvin Austin IIIfrom PIT · 86
- Darnell Mooneyfrom ATL · 82
- JuJu Smith-Schusterfrom KC · 74
- +7 more
- Stefon Diggsto WAS · 210
- Austin Hooperto ATL · 59
- Joshua Dobbsto DET · 2
- A.J. Brownfrom PHI · 220
- Romeo Doubsfrom GB · 165
- Julian Hillfrom MIA · 31
- +4 more
Chicago Bears-172- DJ Mooreto BUF · 172
- Olamide Zaccheausto ATL · 85
- Durham Smytheto BAL · 7
- +2 more
- Kalif Raymondfrom DET · 67
- Scott Millerfrom PIT · 15
- Ray-Ray McCloudfrom NYG · 14
- +1 more
- Michael Pittmanto PIT · 202
- Ameer Abdullahto JAX · 38
- Tyler Goodsonto ATL · 5
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhinefrom MIA · 20
- Pharaoh Brownfrom ARI · 2
- David Montgomeryto HOU · 167
- Kalif Raymondto CHI · 67
- Shane Zylstrato BUF · 5
- +3 more
- Isiah Pachecofrom KC · 87
- Greg Dortchfrom ARI · 75
- Tyler Conklinfrom LAC · 17
- +3 more
- Rachaad Whiteto WAS · 143
- Mike Evansto SF · 85
- Ryan Millerto NYG · 11
- +1 more
- Kenny Gainwellfrom PIT · 221
- David Sillsfrom ATL · 49
- Jake Browningfrom CIN · 49
- Rico Dowdleto PIT · 216
- Andy Daltonto PHI · 10
- Dalevon Campbellto LAC · 0
- John Metchie IIIfrom NYJ · 72
- Casey Washingtonfrom ATL · 15
- AJ Dillonfrom PHI · 9
- +3 more
Seattle Seahawks-104- Kenneth Walker IIIto KC · 192
- Dareke Youngto LV · 7
- Emanuel Wilsonfrom GB · 95
Tennessee Titans+224- Chig Okonkwoto WAS · 124
- Van Jeffersonto WAS · 70
- Brandon Allento NYG · 1
- +1 more
- Wan'Dale Robinsonfrom NYG · 218
- Michael Carterfrom ARI · 99
- Daniel Bellingerfrom NYG · 60
- +2 more
- Geno Smithto NYJ · 174
- Zamir Whiteto SF · 10
- Kenny Pickettto CAR · 8
- Kirk Cousinsfrom ATL · 104
- Jalen Nailorfrom MIN · 101
- Connor Heywardfrom PIT · 27
- +3 more
Baltimore Ravens-127- Isaiah Likelyto NYG · 62
- Keaton Mitchellto LAC · 55
- Charlie Kolarto LAC · 36
- +3 more
- Chris Moorefrom WAS · 39
- Durham Smythefrom CHI · 7
- David Njokuto LAC · 86
- Jerome Fordto WAS · 44
- Kaden Davisto CHI · 0
- Jack Stollfrom NO · 17
- Tylan Wallacefrom BAL · 15
- Noah Fantto NO · 75
- Jake Browningto TB · 49
- Brett Rypiento MIN · 0
- Josh Johnsonfrom WAS · 24
- Jalen Nailorto LV · 101
- Ty Chandlerto NO · 9
- Ben Simsto MIA · 6
- Jauan Jenningsfrom SF · 173
- Kyler Murrayfrom ARI · 78
- Brett Rypienfrom CIN · 0
- +1 more
- Christian Kirkto SF · 58
- Dare Ogunbowaleto LV · 24
- Braxton Berriosto NYG · 10
- David Montgomeryfrom DET · 167
- Foster Moreaufrom NO · 13
- Owen Wrightfrom TB · 1
Buffalo Bills+145- Mitchell Trubiskyto TEN · 31
- Elijah Mooreto PHI · 29
- Reggie Gilliamto NE · 5
- DJ Moorefrom CHI · 172
- Dante Pettisfrom NO · 20
- Trent Sherfieldfrom ARI · 5
- +4 more
- Dante Pettisto BUF · 20
- Jack Stollto CLE · 17
- Foster Moreauto HOU · 13
- +2 more
- Travis Etiennefrom JAX · 254
- Noah Fantfrom CIN · 75
- Ty Chandlerfrom MIN · 9
- +2 more
- Jalen Tolbertto MIA · 46
- Jalen Moreno-Cropperto NO · 0
- Tyler Johnsonfrom NYJ · 38
- Marquez Valdes-Scantlingfrom PIT · 32
- Tyler Conklinto DET · 17
- Hassan Haskinsto NE · 10
- David Njokufrom CLE · 86
- Keaton Mitchellfrom BAL · 55
- Charlie Kolarfrom BAL · 36
- +2 more
2025 production set against where those players are now, worked out by comparing the club they played for with the club they are on today. Every club is listed. It says what is available, not who gets it: a player still on the roster whose role changes anyway, and a drafted rookie, are both invisible here. Read it alongside the regression lists, where a player whose team-mate has left is a different proposition from one whose has not.
Whose job changed
Snap share, last 3 games of 2025 against the rest- 78% → 29% snaps21.0 → 15.0 in a typical gameto Malik Davis
- 10% → 50% snaps3.0 → 11.0 in a typical gameat the expense of Javonte Williams
- 68% → 33% snaps15.5 → 5.0 in a typical game
- 37% → 71% snaps3.5 → 17.0 in a typical gameat the expense of Alvin Kamara
- 14% → 45% snaps1.0 → 2.0 in a typical gameat the expense of Josh Jacobs
- 87% → 10% snaps6.5 → 1.0 in a typical gameto Chimere Dike
- 3% → 69% snaps0.0 → 4.0 in a typical game
- 62% → 13% snaps5.0 → 1.0 in a typical game
- 24% → 72% snaps1.0 → 3.0 in a typical gameat the expense of Dont'e Thornton Jr.
- 63% → 16% snaps3.5 → 2.0 in a typical game
- 44% → 92% snaps1.0 → 3.0 in a typical game
- 15% → 62% snaps0.5 → 1.0 in a typical gameat the expense of David Njoku
- 69% → 24% snaps5.0 → 2.0 in a typical gameto George Kittle
- 32% → 76% snaps1.5 → 4.0 in a typical game
- 26% → 66% snaps2.0 → 3.0 in a typical gameat the expense of Johnny Mundt
- 100% → 2% snaps35.0 → 1.0 in a typical game
- 100% → 6% snaps41.0 → 3.0 in a typical game
- 100% → 10% snaps43.0 → 1.0 in a typical game
- 99% → 46% snaps38.0 → 24.0 in a typical gameto Tyler Shough
- 100% → 59% snaps29.0 → 15.0 in a typical game
Share of his team's offensive snaps across the last three games of 2025 against every game before them, for players who held a real role on one side of the change, and ranked within his own position because a quarterback losing his job dwarfs everything else. Where a team-mate at the same position moved the other way he is named — that is an association, not a cause. A share can move because of an injury, a benching, a change of scheme or nothing that repeats, and this cannot tell them apart. What it does say is that the player who finished the season was not doing the same job as the one who started it, which is the part a points list leaves out.
Form
Runs still alive at the end of 2025Breaking out — furthest above their own level
- Rhamondre StevensonRB NEP3 straight startable games+14.0
- Michael WilsonWR ARI5 straight startable games+8.5
- Chris OlaveWR NOS3 straight startable games+11.0
- Derrick HenryRB BAL3 straight startable games+10.6
- Trevor LawrenceQB JAC6 straight startable games+7.3
- Parker WashingtonWR JAC3 straight startable games+10.2
- Zach CharbonnetRB SEA3 straight startable games+9.4
- Zay FlowersWR BAL5 straight startable games+5.8
Reliable — longest run of startable games
- De'Von AchaneRB MIA16 straight startable games16
- Chase BrownRB CIN11 straight startable games11
- Puka NacuaWR LAR10 straight startable games10
- A.J. BrownWR NEP7 straight startable games7
- Trevor LawrenceQB JAC6 straight startable games6
- Michael WilsonWR ARI5 straight startable games5
- Zay FlowersWR BAL5 straight startable games5
- Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE5 straight startable games5
Startable means clearing the last starting spot at his position, the same bar the draft board measures value against. Breaking out is ranked on how far above his own 2025 average the run sits, so a star doing what a star does will not appear there. Runs are anchored to his most recent game.
Opening 5 fixtures
How generous each team's first 5 opponents were to each position in 2025QB
league average 16.3 pts a game allowed
RB
league average 22.2 pts a game allowed
WR
league average 30.7 pts a game allowed
Shown as the difference from the league average, so positive means his opponents gave up more than most and negative means less. Rated on 2025 defences, because a season needs four weeks in it before its own numbers mean anything: a defence that has changed personnel will not behave the same way.